After Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf announced a three-phase plan to reopen the state last week, state officials provided more precise details on the parameters that will indicate when a region will be ready for reopening.
Wolf´s plan had considered the adjudication of three colors to each of the phases: red, yellow and green. Now, he added that the transition from the red phase, which is the current designation of each region, requires a specific target of new infection rates.
The governor’s office stated that “a target goal for reopening has been set at having fewer than 50 new confirmed cases per 100,000 population reported to the department in the previous 14 days. So, for example, an area with a population of 800,000 people would need to have fewer than 400 new confirmed cases reported in the past 14 days to meet the target. An assessment will determine if the target goal has been met.”
This metrics goes along with other requirements, such as testing and contact tracing, which must be met by the different regions before reopening. There must be enough testing available for the people, health care personnel and first responders.
The announcement highlights the contact tracing initiative as one of the strategies that should be applied with greater force because it would allow cluster outbreaks to be addressed with isolation and quarantine orders.
Other requirements
Plus, each region must identify high-risk settings, such as correctional institutions, personal care homes, and skilled nursing facilities. Those facilities must have adequate safeguards in place, such as staff training, employee screening, visitor procedures, and screening and adequate supplies of personal protective equipment.
There are currently six health regions: northwest; southwest; north central; south central; northeast; and southeast. Gov. Wolf said last week he plans to analyze the north central and northwest regions first, with a target of moving from them from red to yellow on May 8.
According to these parameters, the southeastern Pennsylvania region would be the last to open up.
Philadelphia needs more time
In order for the southeastern Pennsylvania region — which includes Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, Philadelphia and Schuylkill counties — to reach the final phase where major mitigation measures are lifted, the number of new cases must be down to 2,622 over a 14-day period.
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According to the metrics announced, for the Southeastern Pennsylvania region, which includes Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, Philadelphia and Schuylkill counties, to move to the next phase, it would need to reduce the number of new positive coronavirus cases to 2.622 in a 14-day period.
The Southeastern region is currently far from target: the last 14 days that ended Friday, the eight counties reported a combined total of 18,051 cases.
A dashboard modeling
Carnegie Mellon University is developing a dashboard modeling to guarantee the reopening of regions according to the parameters established by the state plan.
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Data from several commonwealth agencies — including the Departments of Labor & Industry, Human Services, Community and Economic Development, Revenue, and Health — will be used to drive the dashboard.
The governor reiterated over the weekend that the administration will continue to refine its approach to reopening based on new data.
“If indicators and criteria point to a spike in cases, the commonwealth, in coordination with local officials, will need to adjust orders and restrictions to ensure the spread of disease remains at a minimum,” his office said in a news release.