According to the state’s moderate modeling predictions, if most New Jersey citizens wear masks, avoid gatherings and keep social distancing, the second wave of COVID-19 cases peak could occur as soon as December 14. The model also establishes that the highest hospitalization count for coronavirus patients would be January 1.
Daily infection counts could peak at 5,466 in two weeks, and about 4,984 people could be in the hospital on New Year’s Day, according to four-month predictions from the Office of Innovation provided to The Record and NorthJersey.com.
As claimed by the current modeling, New Jersey’s second wave would have more known cases than the first wave.
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The moderate modeling scenario assumes a rate of transmission of between 1 and 1.2 in December, which means that an infected person could spread the virus to at least one other person.
An ideal rate of transmission is below 1, meaning the second wave cases would decline. The model then assumes a transmission rate between 0.95 and 1.05 in January, and between 0.9 and 1.02 in February. After March, the model assumes a consistent rate of transmission below 1.
Hospitalizations will remain high
New Jersey’s new cases per capita is the 30th-highest rate in the country, according to the latest White House Coronavirus Task Force report.
The governor’s office predicts that the second wave cases and hospitalizations will remain high around Christmas. The numbers could begin to fall as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out to high-priority groups at the beginning of the year.
New Jersey’s second wave would have more known cases than the first wave. Photo taken from NBC10 Philadelphia
Noticias Newswire
