Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) are projecting nearly 300,000 deaths in the United States from COVID-19 by early December.
The new forecast, released Thursday, projects that between now and December, 137,000 people will die on top of the roughly 160,000 who have died so far.
“With this release to December we are now starting to try to look ahead, with large ranges of course, to the period where COVID-19 will be much more challenging for the country,” said IHME Director Christopher Murray
The model does not have to come true, added Murray: “The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths.” IHME projects that more than 66,000 lives could be saved by Dec. 1 if virtually everyone leaving their homes wore masks.
“You get this really huge effect that accumulates over time, because every individual that is wearing the mask is putting the brakes on transmission by 40%. That starts to add up.”
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Several states have issued mask mandates. IHME data suggests that mandates without penalties increase mask wearing by 8 percentage points, but mandates with penalties increase mask wearing by 15 percentage points.
According to the model, several states are starting to see higher rates of transmission, including Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon and Virginia.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also updated its coronavirus death forecast on Thursday, predicting about 181,000 fatalities in the U.S. by Aug. 29. The death toll currently stands at over 159,000.
Noticias Newswire
